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Sunderland’s route into Europe is still alive, but the key point is easy enough: they almost certainly need to finish eighth, and seventh would be much safer.

The Premier League is set to have five Champions League places next season because English clubs have performed well enough in Europe to earn an extra spot. That means the top five will go into the Champions League. Sunderland are not realistically aiming for that from 12th, so the focus is on whether the European places can drop far enough down the table.

Under the basic system, sixth gets the Europa League, and the EFL Cup winners get the Conference League place. Manchester City have already won the EFL Cup, but they are expected to qualify for the Champions League, so that Conference League place should drop down the table. That means seventh is very likely to be enough for Europe. The big question is eighth.

Eighth place only becomes enough if the FA Cup creates another spare European place. If Manchester City win the FA Cup, that helps Sunderland because City are expected to qualify for the Champions League anyway, meaning their Europa League place would pass down the league table. In that scenario, eighth would get Europe.

If Chelsea win the FA Cup, it depends where they finish in the league. If Chelsea finish seventh or higher, their FA Cup place would also pass down, so eighth would again be enough. But if Chelsea win the FA Cup and finish eighth or lower, they would take that Europa League place themselves, which would make eighth far less helpful for Sunderland.

Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest add another layer. If Villa win the Europa League and finish fifth, sixth would get Champions League – but the Europa League place attached to sixth would be lost to another country, so it does not simply push everything further down for Sunderland. If Forest win the Europa League, they qualify for the Champions League regardless of where they finish, but that does not automatically help Sunderland unless league places open elsewhere.

According to a Q&A published by the Premier League on their website, if Crystal Palace could also qualify for the Europa League by winning the Conference League, but again, that would not necessarily push a place down to Sunderland. It would mainly add Palace as another English club in Europe.

So, in plain terms: Sunderland need to climb to at least eighth and hope Manchester City win the FA Cup, or Chelsea win it while finishing seventh or higher. Seventh would make the equation much cleaner. Sixth would be extraordinary and could even become Champions League in the specific Aston Villa scenario.

There is another issue: goal difference. If Sunderland finish level on points with another club, goal difference comes first, then goals scored, then head-to-head record. That means Sunderland may need to finish above rivals outright rather than rely on tiebreakers. The route, then, is simple but difficult: Sunderland need a strong finish against Manchester United, Everton and Chelsea, climb above several teams, and hope the FA Cup result opens the door.