Plus: why Newcastle are convinced transfers are not the answer

Newcastle United face their Champions League date with destiny with doubts clouding their season.

While Europe has offered hope (especially at home), it’s difficult to argue that they progressed this season.

So what has gone wrong – and what is being done about it?

Recruitment

If you’re waiting for a game-changing signing from Newcastle in January, you will be disappointed. The big signings – a midfielder, a goalkeeper and a versatile forward – are all being planned for the summer because of profitability and sustainability rules (PSR), player availability and January premiums.

That cautious strategy puts the pressure on Howe to extract more from a squad that feels like it lacks cutting edge and creativity. But it’s also a reflection on a chaotic summer that, in retrospect, has caused progress to stall.

One voice at Newcastle spoke of “panic” at times in the summer and it’s clear now that they overspent on Yoane Wissa and, in Nick Woltemade, signed a project who does not easily fit their system and was nowhere near the top of their list in the summer. The fundamentals behind signing Anthony Elanga were sound but he is struggling.

The rule of recruitment is that you judge a window over years rather than months but a pivot in transfer strategy was needed and is apparently underway. They need to move away from the conservative approach that only players who have an established body of work (100-plus appearances in a big five league) should be targeted.

Transfer policy needed a reset. But Newcastle might have to suffer in the meantime.

Eddie Howe is still PIF’s man

Faith in the manager has not wavered this season, despite the apparent plateauing of progress. Senior sources compare Newcastle with the clubs who have changed manager recently and think their stability will bear fruit in the long run. Eddie Howe has “total confidence and support” moving forward.

That is not the same as being entirely happy with the way the season is going. There is a list of mitigating factors from injuries to lack of time on the training pitch, but also an acceptance that certain performances haven’t hit the standards Newcastle have set.

It’s understood there has been healthy debate about managerial decisions and team displays in recent months.

Tactical malaise

Are teams wise to Newcastle now? 4-3-3 is Howe’s desired formation but Aston Villa made it look stale on Sunday. They had players creating havoc in the pocket – Emiliano Buendia and Morgan Rogers – while Newcastle’s attacking patterns felt predictable.

Howe bristles at talk of a Plan B – and he is regarded as one of the sharpest tactical minds in the division – but Newcastle’s results against the best teams this season tell their own story. If they beat Paris Saint-Germain, it would be a much needed scalp in a season where the majority of their wins have come against the middleweights.

Have Newcastle dialled down the intensity? They have covered the fourth most distance per game in the Premier League, the fourth most sprints (3,322 to league leaders Bournemouth’s 3,599) and have made the most recovery runs in the division. There’s not a lot wrong with their pressing game but what they lack is ingenuity and a game-changer.

Razor thin margins – and bad luck

As one club insider pointed out, no club is underperforming their expected points total more than Newcastle. Based on big chances created and xG (expected goals) in individual matches, Newcastle should be 4th. Instead they are 9th.

That perhaps explains why there has been no mid-season attempt to rip things up and start again. Data-wise, these things should even themselves out over the course of the season.

But that stat also illustrates how tight the margins are in the race for the top five. Last season Newcastle had an attack centred around Alexander Isak, who buried the big chances. This year Woltemade and Wissa are not as reliable – unless either of them catches fire, that is a worry.

Opta analyst is predicting them to finish 7th, with a 3.91 per cent chance of a return to the Champions League. At the moment, sadly, that feels about right.