Here’s an in-depth look at the Houston Rockets’ pivotal decision at No. 10 in the 2025 NBA Draft, as they weigh two standout prospects—highlighting the boom-or-bust nature of each option, how they fit into the Rockets’ roster, and the strategic trade potential around draft night.
Houston’s Dilemma: Two Paths, One Pick
1. Shooter‑Creator Backcourt: Kasparas Jakucionis
Projected by ESPN and ABC7, Jakucionis—standing around 6′5″ with playmaking chops, court vision, and solid frame—is a high-floor candidate slotted in the 8–12 range (abc7.com).
Pros:
- Versatility: Can play on or off the ball, with size to guard multiple positions.
- Playmaking & IQ: Strong handle and court sense; could evolve into secondary ball-handler behind Amen Thompson.
- Upside: If his jumper clicks, he fills both skill and need.
Cons:
- Shooting concerns: College three-point percentage dipped (~32%), and concerns remain over NBA-range consistency (reddit.com).
- Redundancy: May overlap with Amen Thompson’s role, potentially limiting development of both.
2. Sharpshooting Wing: Kon Knueppel
Bleacher Report’s mock positions Duke wing Knueppel—41 % from three, 91 % from the free-throw line—as the ideal backcourt-oriented shooter to plug Houston’s long-range deficit (hoopshabit.com).
Pros:
- Elite shooting: Exactly what Myles Turner–hunting Rockets need—floor-spacing and catch-and-shoot efficiency.
- Offensive polish: Beyond spot-up threes, can create his own shot and attack the paint.
- Defensive potential: Has size and awareness to defend wings.
Cons:
- Limited playmaking: More of a specialist; less adaptable if secondary ball-handler is needed.
- Narrow ceiling: Could result in a high-90s percentile role player rather than a multi-faceted star.
Fit with Houston’s Core
The 2024–25 Rockets (52–30, 2nd in West) are built around green-age trio: Jalen Green, Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr., and Reed Sheppard (talksport.com, en.wikipedia.org, en.wikipedia.org).
- Their glaring weakness: perimeter shooting—21st in 3P%, 20th in 3PA .
- They already have speed and playmaking but lack consistent catch-and-shoot options to space the floor.
Both Jakucionis and Knueppel address shooting, but offer contrasting influences:
| Prospect | Shot-Creating | Catch‑and‑Shoot | Playmaking | Fit with Amen/Green |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakucionis | ✔️ Moderate | ✔️ Yes | ✔️ Strong | Possible overlap with Amen |
| Knueppel | ✔️ Some | ✔️ Elite | ⚠️ Limited | Clear spacing role |
Trade or Keep?
The Rockets have assets—this pick plus future picks and young players. They may:
- Stay and select one of the two.
- Trade down for win-now veterans (e.g., Malcolm Brogdon, Khris Middleton) and still add value at this range (spacecityscoop.com, abc7.com, si.com).
- Trade up if a third elite prospect falls (e.g., Flagg, Bailey).
But current mock momentum favors keeping the pick and drafting a complementary piece.
Fan Pulse (from Reddit)
On r/rockets:
“Would love to pick up Flagg or Bailey… they’d elevate this team… biggest, most athletic team 1‑4” (reddit.com, africa.espn.com)
“Maluach or I kill myself” (reddit.com)
These reflect the ambition fans feel for marquee talents—but realistically, both would be off the board by No. 10.
Decision Time Approaches
With the draft on June 25, here’s how it might play out:
- Lottery shake-out may shift boards unexpectedly.
- Summer workouts could raise or lower value.
- By draft night, the front office will compare:
- Jakucionis: upside and ball-handling.
- Knueppel: immediate role and spacing.
- Trade interest could swing plans—someone may pursue this pick hard.
Strategic Implications
- Choosing Jakucionis signals continued focus on attacking versatility and offense creation—fitting Amen-centric build.
- Choosing Knueppel signals a pivot to spacing and role balance—prioritizing shooting around star creators.
Either fills a need—but it’s a philosophical choice: versatility vs. specialist spacing.
Final Take
The Rockets face a classic pick-your-poison scenario:
- Take Jakucionis: Bet on a potential dual-threat wing who can grow into the next Amen-type ball-handler.
- Take Knueppel: Plug one of the roster’s biggest holes, add spacing, and play to strengths already on the roster.
It’ll come down to whether Houston wants development or improvement in 2025–26. Whichever they pick, it reflects their path: build now, or build future upside.
✅ What to Watch on Draft Night
- Which player lands at No. 10?
- Any trade whispers? Particularly if flanked by veterans.
- Commentary from Rafael Stone/Ime Udoka on roller-coaster of fit vs. talent.
- Summer league outlook: Will sets reveal couchable shot or scorer?
