The Dallas Mavericks are now 36-38 after their Thursday night victory versus the Orlando Magic, as Dallas clings on to a half-game lead over the Phoenix Suns for the 10th spot in the West as well as a play-in berth. There are still eight games remaining in the regular season for the Mavericks, and given the Sacramento Kings’ steady decline over the last handful of games, the Mavericks still have a decent chance of grasping sole possession of the ninth seed and hosting their first play-in game at the American Airlines Center this season.

Dallas’ end-of-season resilience amidst one of the more difficult and unprecedented situations in NBA history with Luka Doncic getting traded and the team getting decimated by injuries is nothing short of miraculous, but the NBA isn’t a business that hands out moral victories, unfortunately. The reality of the situation is that Dallas will likely be selecting somewhere toward the end of the lottery in the NBA Draft this summer, based on their current odds, and the higher Dallas moves up in the standings will only worsen their odds in the NBA Draft Lottery this coming May.

Dallas’ chance at coming out of this season on the winning side practically went out the window when Kyrie Irving tore his ACL on March 3, as Dallas likely doesn’t have enough offensive talent and shot creation to overcome the best teams in the West in the early rounds of the playoffs, and that’s taking into consideration that they win two straight play-in games to actually make the playoffs.

Mavs could miss playoffs which is a huge rarity in their specific instance

Taking this into account, Dallas is projected to join some very rare company in regard to how drastically their season has gone downhill after being in the NBA Finals just last June. 22 out of the last 24 Western Conference champions have returned to the Western Conference playoffs the season following their run to the Finals, and the Mavericks will have to win two tough play-in bouts to even make the playoffs, so this is clearly a club Dallas is in jeopardy of joining.

As aforementioned, Dallas crawling themselves out a pit and getting all their bigs back definitely gives this team a new dynamic to be reckoned with, but players will only have so much time to get accustomed to some of the new lineups that will be played right before the playoffs. Dallas beating the Suns or Kings at home would be exciting in itself and wouldn’t be all too surprising if Anthony Davis can help galvanize some more momentum in the last few games for the Mavericks down the stretch.

However, if Dallas ends up being the 10th seed in their first play-in game they will already be fighting an uphill battle from the perspective of not having their fans behind them in a marquee matchup, and it seems like a long-shot the Mavericks could go on to beat one of the LA Clippers, Golden State Warriors, or Minnesota Timberwolves in a second prospective play-in game.

The Mavericks can’t be faulted for competing as hard as they are given what they’ve dealt with this season, but it’s irrefutable to say them making the playoffs would be a mathematically better scenario compared to them dropping more games than not over these last eight games. The only two other NBA teams to not make the playoffs after winning the Western Conference Finals the previous season over the past 24 years are the 2004-05 Los Angeles Lakers who traded Shaquille O’Neal, and the 2019-20 Golden State Warriors who had just loss Kevin Durant in free agency as well as Klay Thompson due to injury at the time.

Clearly the series of events that have transpired this season for the Mavericks have culminated into them being in serious contention to join this undesirable club, and it’s unfortunate Dallas could have totally avoided this situation even being a possibility if they played their cards differently.