Cardinals All-Star Nolan Arenado declines deal to Astros, but trade talks ongoing: Sources
Arenado, who once dropped his no-trade rights to facilitate a deal to the Cardinals, chose not to accept an offer to go the Astros on Tuesday, sources said, but he did not eliminate Houston entirely as a possible destination. The Cardinals and Astros will continue to discuss a deal, a source said, but Houston’s appetite to do so remains unclear as it can explore other options at third base. The Astros are one of “five-ish” teams the Cardinals have had talks about Arenado with, according to sources.
The Yankees and Red Sox are two others with varying degrees of interest.
Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said at this month’s Major League Baseball winter meetings that it was his “intent to try” and trade Arenado, a 10-time Gold Glove winner at third base. The Cardinals’ motivation is clear: With sluggish ticket sales, reduced broadcast revenue and back-to-back disappointing seasons, they are trying to trim payroll by moving some of the $74 million remaining on Arenado’s contract. They are also trying to be responsive to Arenado’s wish to play for a contender while the Cardinals downshift into what they’re calling a “reset.”
Mozeliak confirmed Wednesday that the Cardinals remained in talks with a few teams about Arenado but that nothing was imminent. Hopeful at the winter meetings of not letting these discussions leak into January, Mozeliak said the new year may bring movement.
“We have no set deadlines,” he said Wednesday. “The offseason is the offseason until it’s not.”
MLB.com first reported Wednesday how Arenado utilized his no-trade clause to block a deal to the Astros. Sources told the Post-Dispatch this decision could be revisited.
Any trade discussions about Arenado, 33, are complicated by his contract, which has become a Rubik’s cube of deferred money, cash payments and an additional year that all must shift and twist together through talks and then also maintain its current-day value.
The Cardinals attempted multiple times to solve that riddle and trade for Arenado, and two days before finalizing the deal with Colorado, one source described how the contract was so complex a trade “almost all fell apart.” It had to be reviewed by the union and commissioner’s office. The Cardinals and Arenado agreed to an additional opt-out to balance the contract’s value, while the Cardinals added a year to the original contract at $15 million for 2027. That $15 million sum is likely to offer a framework as the Cardinals expect to cover some of Arenado’s salary in any deal, while the Rockies still owe $5 million in 2025 and $5 million in 2026 and those payments transfer with any trade.
On his side, Arenado made a deal to St. Louis possible by agreeing to defer money from his salary from both the Rockies (with interest) and from the Cardinals (without interest).
All of that is now baked into trade talks this time around, too.
Any adjustments to his contract would be part of Arenado’s approval, and then there’s the discussion on what kind of team he would prefer.
“He’s not going to go just anywhere,” Arenado’s agent Joel Wolfe said at the winter meetings. “He’s not going to go somewhere sidestepping. He’s in a good place with the Cardinals. He’s not going to go just to go.”
Mozeliak approached Arenado in the final week of the regular season to discuss the direction the Cardinals planned to head in 2025. That included a year of transition that would be Mozeliak’s final year leading baseball operations before Chaim Bloom takes over next fall. Arenado agreed to be receptive to a trade. He did not request one, and he has not demanded one, multiple sources said.
He has not provided a list of preferred teams, multiple sources described.
Wolfe said Arenado is “more open-minded” to a number of options this time rather the previous time he was traded, when Arenado fixated on approving a deal to the Cardinals.
When invited into the conversations by the Cardinals, Arenado’s agent has talked with a few teams about his client.
The Cardinals reached out to a limited number of teams they felt would fit Arenado’s preferences. The Yankees were one of the teams. The Dodgers and Padres also met the profile, but the Dodgers have said they intend to have Max Muncy at third base on opening day and the Padres, according to a source, do not have the financial flexibility to add Arenado. The Red Sox and Astros emerged as interested parties as well, according to sources.
Several other teams, including the Angels, have contacted the Cardinals. But it’s not clear if a move closer to his Southern California home is as appealing as a move up in the standings.
Arenado has said he will move positions to facilitate a trade to a contending team, Wolfe said.
The Cardinals’ discussions are not happening in a vacuum as some of the teams they’ve engaged, like the Astros, also have interest in free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman, who was a cornerstone of Houston’s recent American League dominance. The Yankees and Red Sox have also been tied to Bregman. As with any offseason, teams explore all options to create leverage and avoid being left out as those options sign, and it could take Bregman signing to crystallize the interested parties for Arenado.
The Cardinals’ goal from the outset was to find a deal that benefited their goal to reduce payroll and benefited Arenado by placing him with a “throttle down” team. Both the Cardinals and Arenado’s representative have said it’s possible he remains with the Cardinals.
In the closing weeks of the regular season, Arenado explained how he felt “very responsible for why” the Cardinals missed the playoffs and that some bad habits “hurt this team and hurt me.” Arenado hit 16 home runs, and his .394 slugging percentage was the lowest of his career. A superb second half at third base made him a finalist for the Gold Glove Award, and if he had won it, Arenado would have surpassed Mike Schmidt for the most at third in the NL.
Following the trade from Colorado, Arenado has twice opted to remain with the Cardinals when he had a chance to elect free agency.
“Nolan lives and dies with every game,” Wolfe said recently. “(The Cardinals) said it might be beneficial to move you. … Let’s just try to find a place where they’re in a different place where he could just jump in and help the team go to the next level.”