Think you know what the Atlanta Braves are going to do next? Think again.

Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has proven to be one of Major League Baseball’s savviest executives, and it’s due to his ability to see one move ahead of his competitors.

From retooling the outfield and winning a World Series to trading for Cy Young favorite Chris Sale, Anthopoulos has built quite a reputation for himself over the past half-decade. Whatever moves Anthopoulos decides to this winter will be tough to question.

Free-agent starting pitcher Max Fried seems to have one foot out the door in Atlanta. The Braves haven’t typically paid high-end starting pitchers on the open market, and the rotation is flush with talent even in his absence. But perhaps Anthopoulos will want him back anyway.

David Brown of Deadspin recently predicted a surprising reunion between Fried and the Braves, forecasting a four-year, $125 million deal for the 31-year-old lefty to remain in Atlanta.

“One of the 9-10 best starters in the league since 2019, he isn’t huge with strikeouts, but he does keep the ball in the park,” Brown said. “Had a forearm strain in 2023 but posted a 3.25 ERA in 29 starts in ’24 at age 30. The Braves don’t typically pay top dollar, but they also can’t afford to let Fried walk.”

It’s no lock that the Braves “can’t afford” to lose Fried, because they should get former 20-game winner Spencer Strider back in their rotation at some point next season. Strider, Sale, Reynaldo López and Spencer Schwellenbach give Atlanta a formidable quartet atop their rotation when healthy.

However, there’s a lot to be said for the consistency and ability to pitch deep into games that Fried brings to the table. If the Braves decide they can’t stand to see Fried pitch anywhere else, it would be hard to blame them.

Speaking frankly, though, $125 million isn’t going to cut it. The market for Fried will be fiercely competitive, and the odds he signs for only four years have to be infinitesimal.