Will he accept? Or will the Reds land draft pick compensation when he signs elsewhere?

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The Cincinnati Reds stepped into waters most often reserved for the bigger-spending teams in Major League Baseball on Monday afternoon, issuing a $21+ million qualifying offer (QO) to pitcher Nick Martinez, who had opted out of the previously existing $12 million on his contract last week.

The Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer had the details, noting that Nick now has 15 days to accept or reject the offer and, if rejected, enter free agency.

I say that the Reds entered the realm normally reserved for the bigger-spending MLB clubs not because Martinez, who was stellar for the Reds in a versatile role in 2024, isn’t worth the money. He’s precisely the kind of pitcher who is worth that kind of money, especially on a one-year deal (should he accept). The realm of which I speak isn’t about the money here – instead, it’s about the risk of him accepting.

While issuing the QO clearly indicates the Reds want to keep Martinez around, it goes without saying that the Reds usually prefer to spread their risk over as many years as they feasibly can to make sure one player doesn’t eat up too much of their annual payroll. The front office would likely admit freely that Martinez was right to opt-out of a deal that would pay him $12 million for 2025,

but it goes without saying that in the contract negotiations mentioned by Wittenmyer that they likely were discussing annual figures lower than the $21 million he’d get by accepting the QO.

So, we’ll get to see if Martinez, who’ll turn 35 next August, is willing to bet on himself and decline the offer, thereby entering free agency with the QO penalty attached to any team that would sign him – a loss of draft pick depending on whether the signing team is a revenue-sharing contributor or recipient. The Reds, meanwhile, would potentially earn a compensation pick after the 1st round in next summer’s draft if a team was willing to splurge for a contract of more than $50 million guaranteed to Martinez (or get a pick after Competitive Balance Round B should he sign for less than that).

The ‘risk’ I speak of here is because Martinez, for all his successes in 2024, is one of the potential QO receivers who’s not a lock to decline it. Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Pete Alonso, & Co. will all decline it immediately since their market will be so robust as to eliminate any stigma of draft-pick loss upon signing them. With Martinez, though, his age, lack of ‘defined’ role, and relatively short track record of success makes him a harder decision to gauge, especially since some teams out there might prefer him for his relief work more than that of a starter.

For the same reason the Reds took on that risk, though, Martinez is such a perfect fit for this ballclub. They need starter innings from somewhere given their losses and injuries, but they need someone who wouldn’t necessarily be a roadblock to a spot in the rotation if any of the uber-talented young arms takes a big enough step forward between now and next summer to deserve starts, too. If each of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, Graham Ashcraft, Chase Petty, Connor Phillips, and Chase Burns hit peak health and performance, Martinez has shown the willingness and ability to rotate into a bulk-relief role – and excel in it – at the drop of a hat.

That’s precisely why I’m of the opinion that he’ll likely accept this QO from the Reds and return for 2025. The Reds might end up spending a handful of millions more on him for 2025 than they’d like, in this scenario, but they clearly like him and his fit enough to take that risk.