Here’s what CFP selection committee said about Tennessee football playoff resume…
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The College Football Playoff selection committee rewarded Tennessee for its win over Alabama but penalized it for a loss to Arkansas.
That’s why the Vols (7-1) were ranked No. 7 in the initial CFP poll on Tuesday. They are ahead of two undefeated teams, No. 8 Indiana (9-0) and No. 9 BYU (8-0), but behind No. 6 Penn State (7-1).
“Tennessee has an impressive win over Alabama at No. 11 and wins over North Carolina State and Oklahoma – 4-1 (record) against teams above .500,” CFP selection committee chairman Warde Manuel said during a media conference call.
“The loss at Arkansas was something we discussed a lot.”
Manuel mentioned that Alabama is the highest ranked two-loss team in the CFP poll at No. 11, so the Vols’ 24-17 win over the Crimson Tide carries weight in the ranking.
He added that Penn State is ranked ahead of Tennessee because the Nittany Lions have a strong body of work and a tight 20-13 loss to No. 2 Ohio State.
Could Vols play Indiana at Neyland Stadium in playoff?
Tennessee was ranked No. 7 in the first CFP poll. But the four highest-ranked conference champions will get a first-round bye in the 12-team playoff, so projected Big 12 champion BYU is placed as the No. 4 seed in the projected bracket according to the first ranking.
If these initial rankings determined the playoff, Tennessee would be the No. 8 seed in the bracket and host Indiana in a first-round game at Neyland Stadium. But the rankings will be updated each week, so that projection could change drastically.
However, it’s plausible that Tennessee and Indiana could finish as the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds, respectively. Some projections have placed them in those positions.
They’ve played twice before, and the Vols won both games. Tennessee beat Indiana 27-22 in the Peach Bowl to finish the 1987 season. And it won 23-22 in the Gator Bowl to finish the 2019 season, but Tennessee vacated that game due to NCAA infractions committed under former coach Jeremy Pruitt.
What Tennessee must do to make playoff
There’s a month to go to the finish line of setting the 12-team bracket.
The CFP selection committee will release a new Top 25 ranking each Tuesday for the next month, and the final CFP field will be announced on Dec. 8.
There are five guaranteed spots (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC champions, plus highest-ranked non P4 conference champion). And then seven teams get at-large bids, based on their ranking in the CFP poll.
If Tennessee wins its remaining four games for an 11-1 record, it will make the playoff easily and potentially the SEC title game. If the Vols lose to No. 3 Georgia only for a 10-2 record, they likely would be compared to a few other contenders for the final at-large spots.
Overall record, strength of schedule, head-to-head results and performance against common opponents are key factors in the CFP selection process.
Tennessee has four games remaining in the regular season, including Saturday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) against Mississippi State (2-7, 0-5) at Neyland Stadium. Then the Vols play at Georgia (7-1, 5-1) on Nov. 16 (7:30 p.m., ABC), UTEP (1-8) at home on Nov. 23 and at Vanderbilt (6-3, 3-2) on Nov. 30.
Notably, Manuel said, “Vanderbilt is a very good team this year.”
Why it helps Tennessee if ACC, Big 12 teams lose
Again, Tennessee will coast into the bracket with an 11-1 record.
But the more teams the SEC gets into the playoff, the better Tennessee’s chances are of making it with a 10-2 record.
So it could help the Vols if either the Big 12 or ACC are one-bid leagues, meaning only their conference champion gets in.
In the Big 12, No. 9 BYU (8-0), No. 17 Iowa State (7-1), No. 19 Kansas State (7-2) and No. 20 Colorado (6-2) are in the mix. If BYU runs the table and wins the Big 12 title, it could be the lone playoff team from that conference.
In the ACC, No. 4 Miami (9-0), No. 13 SMU (8-1), No. 18 Pittsburgh (7-1) and No. 23 Clemson (6-2) are in the mix. If Miami runs the table and wins the ACC title, it could be the lone playoff team from that conference.
The Big Ten will get multiple teams into the playoff, but the fewer the better for the SEC. No. 1 Oregon (9-0), No. 2 Ohio State (7-1), No. 6 Penn State (7-1) and No. 9 Indiana (9-0) are in playoff contention in the Big Ten.
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Vols should keep eye on these games
But any loss by a playoff contender potentially helps Tennessee’s ranking. Here are some notable games Saturday where those losses could occur (along with the ranking of CFP contenders):
