The 2024 NFL season has already claimed the job of one head coach. The New York Jets fired Robert Saleh, fixing nothing in the process.

Saleh won’t be the only play caller sacrificed at the altar of progress. Black Monday — the day after Week 18 concludes — is the first day of the offseason for the 18 teams that failed to make the playoffs. It’s also the day struggling coaches across the league will be called in for awkward exit interviews.

Who are the most likely candidates to get the dreaded 7 a.m. meeting and escort off team grounds? These five coaches stand out as the league nears its halfway point.

Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears

Oct 13, 2024; London, United Kingdom; Chicago Bears coach Matt Eberflus talks with side judge Chad Hill (125) against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second half during an NFL International Series game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Eberflus had coached his way off the hot seat thanks to a three-game winning streak that saw his Bears improve to 4-2 behind a rising Caleb Williams. Then he stared down a bottom-10 defense after his Week 7 bye and found a way to undo all that goodwill. It began with a low-wattage passing game that failed to capitalize on the weaknesses in the Washington Commanders’ secondary. It ended with, well.

Oooof. Eberflus adjusted to get Williams back on track late in the game, but still found ways to sabotage himself in the process. Okaying a goal line handoff to a backup offensive lineman trailing 12-7? Sure! Failing to take a timeout before Washington’s game-winning Hail Mary? Yep! Using a quarterback spy when Jayden Daniels was a full 52 yards from the end zone with two seconds to play? That too!

Eberflus looks like a proper NFL head coach in abstract. When he comes into focus his flaws are unavoidable. He’s now 14-27 with the Bears. He’s got a top five defense, an electric young quarterback and a skilled core of veteran playmakers. But he’s made collapse feel inevitable for a franchise that’s known little else for the past three decades. There’s a reason Lions’ offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s interest in the job was floated after Sunday’s heartbreaking defeat.

After Week 8’s loss, Matt Eberflus looks *a lot* like a Chicago Bears head coach. This is not a compliment.

Brian Daboll, New York Giants

Oct 20, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll, left, talks with assistant coach Jerome Henderson during the second half against the Philadelphia Eagles at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Daboll is working with what he has, but the 2022 NFL coach of the year has been unable to turn that into wins. He’s just 8-17 since his surprising playoff breakthrough and, if his 2024 pace holds true, will wrap up 2024 with a career win percentage around 40 percent. That’s better than ousted predecessors like Joe Judge and Pat Shurmur, but behind Ben McAdoo (who admittedly had issues beyond just losing games like benching Eli Manning for Geno Smith. Which, hey, looks a lot better today!).

Since 2023, Daboll’s offense ranks 29th in expected points added (EPA) per play, sandwiched between the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets. His defense clocks in at a more optimistic 22nd, which is still pretty grim. This could be enough to end his tenure before getting a real, honest-to-goodness shot at engineering an offense led by a quarterback better than Daniel Jones.

Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints

Oct 17, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen reacts against the Denver Broncos during the second quarter at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

Allen isn’t responsible for the injury woes that have plagued his offense. He’s also not the general manager who has made it virtually impossible to build meaningful depth thanks to the looming shadow of perpetual salary cap debt. But he could be left holding the bag in a league where he can’t fire the roster (and, even if he could, it would still leave behind dead cap space equal to a small island nation’s gross domestic product).

The former Sean Payton disciple was supposed to bring continuity in a post-Payton, post-Drew Brees world. For two seasons he did just that, hovering around .500 with solid defense and failing to create anything resembling a postseason threat. His floor has dropped out from underneath him in 2024, however.

Derek Carr’s injury played a role, but even if he played like his 2016 self he’d have a difficult time overcoming a defense that’s given up more yards than anyone else in the NFL. That’s supposed to be Allen’s specialty, but an aging core is falling apart. The pass rush is generating a bottom 10 pressure rate that, paired with a bottom six coverage separation distance, is creating opportunities through the air. That’s nothing, however, compared to a run defense second only to the Dallas Cowboys when it comes to EPA allowed per rush (and 5.2 yards per carry!).

Allen has time to turn this around. New Orleans’s place in salary cap hell could give him another chance even if he doesn’t, because the Saints have little to offer a rising young coaching candidate. But even if he sticks around, it won’t mean all is well in Louisiana.

Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

Oct 27, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy on the sideline during the third quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images

McCarthy was a name recognition hire for Jerry Jones. He’d won a Super Bowl in Green Bay and helped make Aaron Rodgers a star, but the tail end of his Packers tenure was filled with playoff disasters, truly baffling clock management and the distinct inability to make in-game adjustments to counteract whatever other teams were doing right.

So, McCarthy’s Cowboys tenure has been filled with… playoff disasters (1-3), truly baffling clock management and the distinct inability to make in-game adjustments to counteract whatever other teams were doing right. This all led Jones to let him twist in the wind for 2024, the last year on McCarthy’s contract. It’s a situation you rarely see in the NFL, but one that allows Dallas to simply walk away once the season’s over instead of having to actually pink slip its head coach.

In that regard, at least McCarthy isn’t especially fireable. He may still get released before the season’s over just to send a message, but he might just get cast off to sea with a quiet non-renewal. Dak Prescott signed a contract that gave him the largest guaranteed money in NFL history and has responded by playing like the league’s 23rd-best quarterback (one spot ahead of Will Levis!). The run game everyone expected to be a problem has been exactly that.

Dallas is 3-4, but half those losses have come by at least 25 points. The best win of the season came over Justin Fields and the Pittsburgh Steelers. McCarthy isn’t just going to have to turn things around this fall to earn a new contract; he’s going to have to prove he can win multiple postseason games to get there. The way this roster has been playing, that’s a massive challenge.

Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson talks to referee Land Clark (130) during the second quarter of an NFL football matchup Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]

The Jaguars have been playing better of late. They’ve put up at least 27 points in three of their last four games. Trevor Lawrence was the league’s 32nd-best quarterback in terms of EPA per dropback (-0.010) in September. In the four weeks since, he’s up to fourth (0.213). This is all meaningful progress.

Unfortunately, Pederson’s team is only 2-6 as a result. His defense gave up 350-plus passing yards and three touchdowns to Joe Flacco in the team’s only win over a team that’s .500 or better. The other victory came against the New England Patriots, which looks a little better after Week 8 (Jets, your execution, woof) but still isn’t especially impressive.

Safety Andre Cisco said some players had quit on the team back in Week 6’s London loss to the Bears. While there’s been more effort lately, Jacksonville’s willingness to sell before this year’s trade deadline, as evidenced by the deal that made starting left tackle Cam Robinson a Minnesota Viking, is going to make a turnaround difficult.

Pederson finished above .500 in his first two seasons at the helm and led the Jaguars back from a 31-0 Wild Card deficit in 2022. But he’s 3-11 in his last 14 games and, even with his offense coming to life, struggling to win each week. Jacksonville appeared to have backed into a solid coach when it settled on the former Super Bowl winner late in the 2022 coaching cycle. Instead, Pederson’s tenure in teal and gold looks like it will be over after three seasons.

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